Dow jumps 3% and oil sinks 8% after midterms; chip stocks drag Asia
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · as of Nov 5, 6:28 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
US stocks rallied Wednesday after Democrats' decisive midterm win, with the Dow up 3.03% as WTI crude fell 8.45% and Treasury yields slipped. Chipmakers lagged on AI data-center regulation worries, sending the KOSPI down 5.28% overnight while Hong Kong jumped 3.7%. The Bank of England decides at 7:00am ET; Friday's payrolls are next.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- Stocks rallied after Democrats' decisive US midterm win: the Dow rose 3.03% to 53,356.12 and the S&P 500 1.58% to 7,688.62. Tapeboard
- Oil collapsed: WTI fell 8.45% to $87.97 and energy (XLE) lost 5.55%, as markets priced lower odds of renewed US strikes on Iran under a divided Washington. Tapeboard, Trading Economics
- Chips lagged on fears a Democrat-led Congress could tighten rules on AI data centers; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.1%; Seoul and Tokyo fell overnight. Trading Economics
- Data were mixed: October ISM services PMI 54.5 vs 54.8 consensus (prices index 73.0), while ADP private payrolls rose 86K vs 69K expected. Trading Economics
- Treasuries rallied: the 10-year yield fell 5 bp to 4.90% and the 2-year 3 bp to 4.58%; gold jumped 4.16% to $4,104.40. U.S. Treasury, Tapeboard
Market snapshot
Why it mattered
Reported: Trading Economics attributes lower oil, yields and dollar to reduced political uncertainty and lower odds of Middle East escalation. AppLovin rose about 20% after hours on results; Toyota jumped 16.7% in Tokyo after raising guidance. Dow futures were up and Nasdaq 100 futures down early Thursday. Trading Economics
Our read (commentary, not investment advice): The market is splitting the election into two trades — cheaper energy and lower yields help cyclicals and consumers, while AI-infrastructure names absorb regulatory risk. Friday's payrolls report will test whether the rate rally holds.
Today's calendar
- 7:00am ET — Bank of England decision (consensus: hike to 4.00% from 3.75%)
- 8:30am ET — US initial jobless claims (prior 194K, consensus 196K); Q3 productivity prelim (prior 1.4%, consensus 2.8%)
- Before open — ConocoPhillips, Duke Energy, Southern Co., Cigna, Cummins, Zoetis, US Foods
- After close — Airbnb, Cloudflare, Monster Beverage, EOG Resources, Atlassian
- Fri 8:30am ET — October payrolls (prior 29K, consensus 65K), unemployment (4.2%)
Sources: Trading Economics calendar, Digrin
Business lens
- Dairy (official): October FMMO all-market averages: Class III $15.16/cwt (−$0.88 vs Sep), Class IV $20.54 (+$1.60). USDA weekly survey, week ending Oct 31 vs prior week: 40-lb block cheddar $1.5279/lb (+11.0¢), butter $1.3703 (+0.8¢), nonfat dry milk $2.1203 (+6.7¢), dry whey $0.7325 (−0.5¢); barrels unavailable. USDA AMS, USDA FMMO
- CME spot dairy & Class III/IV futures: unavailable (source not reachable today). Week direction from USDA survey: cheese up, butter flat-to-slightly up.
- Feed (6:25am ET, vs prior close): corn 447.5¢/bu (+0.7%, near a 3-month low), soybeans 1,197.7¢ (+0.4%), wheat 604.6¢ (+1.0%); soybean meal unavailable. Trading Economics
- Fuel: US on-highway diesel $6.292/gal, week of Nov 2, −6.0¢ w/w. EIA
- Freight: unavailable.
- Rates: SOFR 3.97%, 2Y 4.58% (above).
Our read (commentary): Class IV is being carried by nonfat dry milk while butter sits near $1.37; fat earns little. Class III at $15.16 is thin, though rising block cheese could lift November. Corn near three-month lows helps feed margins, and Wednesday's oil drop should flow into diesel with a lag of a week or two.