Tech rout sinks Nasdaq 2.9% Friday; futures, Asia rebound as oil drops below $100
Monday, November 2, 2026 · as of Nov 2, 6:32 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
Intel's 28% plunge and AI-spending doubts drove the Nasdaq down 2.86% on Friday while defensives and Treasuries rallied. Monday futures are up about 0.4% as WTI falls below $100 on Iran diplomacy reports, ahead of ISM data, Tuesday's midterms and Friday's jobs report.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- Friday's session (Oct 30) was a tech rout: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% and the S&P 500 1.82%, as staples and health care gained ~3%. Tapeboard
- Intel lost about 28.5% on a weak Q4 outlook and pulled other chipmakers 4–11% lower; Amazon closed -1.41%. The National
- Q3 Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% q/q, in line with consensus (Q2: 0.9%). Trading Economics
- Chicago PMI slipped to 55.3 in October from 58.8, short of the 56.1 forecast but still expanding. Trading Economics
- Treasuries rallied: the 10-year fell 4 bp to 4.94% and the 2-year 5 bp to 4.56%. U.S. Treasury
Market snapshot
Why it mattered
Reported: Investors are questioning hyperscaler AI spending after mixed results; Microsoft trimmed its 2026 capex outlook while Amazon held its forecast (The National). Oil is sliding Monday on reports the White House will give Iran diplomacy more time after Tuesday's midterms (Trading Economics). Markets price about a 75% chance of a December Fed hike (Trading Economics).
Our read: Commentary, not investment advice. Friday looked like rotation, not panic: defensives and bonds caught the bid. Cheaper oil eases inflation worries, but payrolls and the election can quickly reprice rates.
Today's calendar
All times ET (EST). Today: S&P Global manufacturing PMI final 9:45 (prior 55.9); ISM manufacturing 10:00 (consensus 54.6, prior 54.5); construction spending 10:00; Fed's Goolsbee 11:15; Fed loan officer survey 14:00; Treasury refunding estimates 15:00. This week: midterm elections Tue; JOLTS Tue 10:00; ADP Wed 8:15; ISM services Wed 10:00; Bank of England decision Thu (time TBD); October payrolls Fri 8:30 (consensus 65K). Earnings this week include Apple, Palantir, AMD, Pfizer and McDonald's.
Business lens
- Dairy (USDA weekly survey, week ending Oct 24, vs revised prior week): 40-lb blocks $1.4178/lb (from $1.3864); butter $1.3627 (from $1.3538); nonfat dry milk $2.0538 (from $1.9959); dry whey $0.7374 (from $0.7250); barrels unavailable. Latest FMMO all-market average (September): Class III $16.04/cwt, Class IV $18.94. CME spot and Friday Class III/IV settles: unavailable. Week's direction: cheese and butter firmed modestly.
- Feed (live quotes Nov 2): corn ~$4.50/bu near August lows; soybeans $12.21 (-0.09%); wheat $6.06 (+0.35%); soymeal unavailable.
- Fuel: U.S. diesel $6.352/gal for Oct 26, up 7.6¢ w/w (EIA); new reading due today.
- Freight: unavailable.
- Rates: SOFR 3.94%; 2-yr yield -5 bp Friday.
Our read: Commentary only. Butter near $1.36 is weighing on milk fat value, so Class IV is leaning on strong nonfat dry milk above $2. Cheese firming helps Class III off its lows. With corn and soybeans near multi-week lows, feed costs look favorable against milk prices, but $6+ diesel still squeezes hauling and delivery margins.