Democrats sweep Congress; Nasdaq up, Dow down; futures rise as dollar slips
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · as of Nov 4, 6:28 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
US stocks closed mixed Tuesday as midterm results showed Democrats taking both chambers of Congress, and September job openings beat forecasts while Treasury yields rose. Overnight, futures and European shares rose, the dollar weakened and gold climbed back above $4,000, while Japanese tech fell. Dairy product prices firmed in the latest USDA weekly survey and corn sits near three-month lows.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- US stocks closed mixed Tuesday: Nasdaq +0.83%, S&P 500 +0.36%, Dow −0.38%. Tapeboard
- Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections; markets see less room for tax cuts and spending, and more AI regulatory risk. Trading Economics
- September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523M vs a 7.10M consensus (prior revised to 7.19M); September factory orders rose 1.8% vs 1.2% expected. Trading Economics calendar
- Treasury yields rose: the 2-year added 2 bp to 4.61% and the 10-year 4 bp to 4.95%. U.S. Treasury
- AMD reported stronger-than-expected results after the close and traded more than 6% higher pre-market. Trading Economics
Market snapshot
Why it mattered
Reported: Overnight the dollar fell, gold reclaimed $4,000/oz on gridlock bets, and WTI slipped toward ~$95, a three-week low (Trading Economics). Japanese tech sold off; Hong Kong and China rallied. Eurozone flash October inflation hit 4.0%, and the Bank of England is expected to raise rates Thursday (Trading Economics).
Our read (commentary, not investment advice): Gridlock means less new fiscal stimulus, hence firmer futures and a softer dollar. But strong job openings and higher yields keep Fed-tightening risk in focus before Friday's payrolls.
Today's calendar
All times ET (Trading Economics, converted from UTC).
- 8:15 — ADP employment (Oct): consensus 69K, prior 90K
- 8:30 — Trade balance (Sep): consensus −$108B, prior −$105.6B
- 10:00 — ISM Services PMI (Oct): consensus 54.8, prior 54.9
- 10:30 — EIA crude inventories
- Earnings before the open: McDonald's, Uber, CVS, Datadog, Emerson, Novo Nordisk; after the close: Qualcomm, McKesson, MercadoLibre, AppLovin (Digrin)
- Coming up: BoE decision Thu 7:00 (consensus 4.00%, prior 3.75%); October payrolls Fri 8:30 (consensus 65K)
Business lens
- Dairy (USDA NDPSR, week ending Oct 24, vs prior week): 40-lb blocks $1.4178/lb (+3.1¢), butter $1.3627 (+0.9¢), nonfat dry milk $2.0538 (+5.8¢), dry whey $0.7374 (+1.2¢); barrels unavailable. Latest FMMO all-market average (September): Class III $16.04/cwt, Class IV $18.94/cwt (USDA AMS). CME spot dairy and Class III/IV futures for Nov 3: unavailable.
- Feed (live quotes, ~6:25am ET): corn ~$4.42/bu (three-month low), soybeans ~$11.90/bu, wheat ~$6.04/bu (Trading Economics); soybean meal unavailable.
- Fuel: US on-highway diesel $6.292/gal, week of Nov 2, −6.0¢ vs prior week (EIA).
- Freight: unavailable.
- Rates: see snapshot (SOFR 3.95%, 10Y 4.95%).
Our read (commentary): Cheese and butter both firmed for the week, but butter in the mid-$1.30s still caps Class IV's butterfat value; $2+ nonfat dry milk is what keeps Class IV above Class III. Corn at three-month lows helps the feed-to-milk margin, while $6+ diesel weighs on delivery routes. With Fed-hike talk, floating-rate borrowing costs are unlikely to ease soon.