Tech rout hits Nasdaq; Dow gains as ISM beats; futures slip on Election Day
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · as of Nov 3, 6:27 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
Monday's session saw a sharp rotation out of tech: the Nasdaq fell 1.07% and the S&P 500 0.51%, while the Dow rose 0.41% and October ISM manufacturing beat at 55.5. The curve flattened (10Y 4.91%, 2Y 4.59%), KOSPI slid 3.59% overnight, and oil rebounded ~2% on Iran headlines as US futures edged lower ahead of the midterms.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- Tech sold off Monday: tech sector ETF -7.69% (Lumentum -18.59%), staples +3.01%. Nasdaq -1.07%, Dow +0.41%. Tapeboard
- October ISM Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs 54.6 consensus (prior 54.5). Trading Economics calendar
- WTI fell 7.25% to $96.57 on US–Iran diplomacy hopes, then rose ~2% overnight on reports of a US strike on Qeshm Island. Tapeboard, Trading Economics
- Curve flattened: 2Y +3 bp to 4.59%, 10Y -3 bp to 4.91%. December Fed hike odds ~73%. U.S. Treasury, Trading Economics
- AI-spending worries hit Asia: KOSPI -3.59%. Apple fell ~3% after hours on weak Q4 revenue guidance. Trading Economics, Trading Economics
Market snapshot
Why it mattered
Reported: VIX +8.91% to 21.15 (Tapeboard). US futures edge lower as midterm voting begins (Trading Economics). European tech is lower (ASML -3%) (Trading Economics).
Our read (commentary, not investment advice): Strong ISM data plus lower long yields suggest an exit from crowded AI trades, not growth fear. Firm front-end yields and Iran-driven oil keep December hike risk in play. Watch the election results and Friday payrolls.
Today's calendar
All times ET.
- All day: US midterm elections
- 10:00am: JOLTS job openings (Sep), prior 7.079M, consensus 7.10M
- 10:00am: Factory orders (Sep), prior +0.1%, consensus +1.2%
- 4:30pm: API crude inventories
- Earnings (times unavailable): AMD, Super Micro, Pfizer, Shopify, Booking Holdings
Later this week: ADP (Wed 8:15am), ISM Services (Wed 10:00am), payrolls (Fri 8:30am; prior 29K, consensus 65K). Trading Economics calendar
Business lens
- Dairy, USDA weekly (week ending Oct 24, vs prior week): 40-lb block cheddar $1.4178/lb (+3.1¢), butter $1.3627 (+0.9¢), nonfat dry milk $2.0538 (+5.8¢), dry whey $0.7374 (+1.2¢). The 500-lb barrel price is unavailable. Cheese and butter both rose on the week. USDA AMS
- FMMO, September all-market average: Class III $16.04/cwt, Class IV $18.94/cwt. USDA AMS
- CME: Front-month Class III futures $15.17/cwt (-0.13%), cheese futures $1.6151/lb (+0.88%), live at ~6:25am ET. CME spot cash dairy prices are unavailable. Trading Economics
- Feed (live, ~6:25am ET): corn 446.9¢/bu (-0.30%), soybeans 1,208.3¢ (+0.29%), wheat 606.7¢ (+0.03%). Soymeal is unavailable. Trading Economics
- Fuel: US on-highway diesel $6.352/gal for the week of Oct 26, up 7.6¢ week over week. Heating-oil futures are up 3.9% this morning. EIA
- Freight: unavailable.
- Rates: SOFR 3.95% (Oct 30). December hike odds are about 73%.
Our read: Weak butter (~$1.36), offset by NDM above $2, keeps Class IV ahead of Class III. Class III futures near $15 squeeze cheese-linked milk. Corn under $4.50 helps feed margins, but diesel above $6 and hike risk raise delivery and borrowing costs.