Nasdaq drops 2.6% on AI-spending fears; Treasuries rally, oil holds above $100
Friday, October 23, 2026 · as of Oct 23, 6:27 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
A Meta-led tech selloff on Thursday sent the Nasdaq down 2.6% and the S&P 500 down 1.2%, while defensives rose and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 bp to 4.96%. Asia steadied on Friday, Europe is trading lower, and crude is above $100 on Middle East tensions ahead of next week's Fed decision and Q3 GDP.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- Tech sold off hard on Thursday, Oct 22: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% and the S&P 500 1.21%, while consumer staples (+2.55%) and utilities (+2.36%) led the defensive side. Tapeboard
- Meta's plan to lift capital spending revived worries about how AI build-outs get financed; Nvidia (-4.4%), AMD (-8.1%) and Micron (-6.3%) were among the laggards. Trading Economics
- Treasuries rallied on safe-haven demand: the 10-year yield fell 17 bp to 4.96% and the 2-year 16 bp to 4.65%. U.S. Treasury
- Middle East tensions pushed crude higher, with Brent at a five-month high near $114 overnight. Trading Economics
- Initial jobless claims came in at 194K for the week to Oct 17, versus 200K the prior week (consensus unavailable). Trading Economics calendar
Market snapshot
Live quotes are indicative CFD prices, not closes.
Why it mattered
Reported: Trading Economics says markets price roughly a 91% chance the Fed holds at next week's meeting and about 80% odds of a December hike; Japan's September core CPI rose to 2.1%; euro-area flash PMIs showed slower growth. Trading Economics
Our read (commentary, not investment advice): A 17 bp drop in the 10-year on a risk-off day says investors are hedging growth risk from an AI-capex reset even as oil above $100 keeps inflation, and Fed hike talk, alive. That tension makes next week's Fed decision and Q3 GDP the key tests.
Today's calendar
- 09:45 ET — S&P Global flash PMIs, Oct (composite prior 58.4)
- 10:00 ET — UMich sentiment, final Oct (prior 48.1)
- Today's earnings: unavailable (sources conflict)
- Next week: Fed decision Wed Oct 28 14:00 ET; Q3 GDP and Sept PCE Thu Oct 29 08:30 ET; Alphabet (Tue, after close), Microsoft and Meta (Wed), Amazon (Thu, after close), per StockTi
Business lens
- Dairy (USDA weekly, week ending Oct 17, vs prior week): 40-lb blocks $1.3856/lb (-4.5¢), butter $1.3547 (-1.1¢), nonfat dry milk $1.9959 (+3.0¢), dry whey $0.7260 (+0.6¢); barrels unavailable. Latest FMMO all-market average (September): Class III $16.04, Class IV $18.94/cwt. USDA AMS CME spot cheese/butter: unavailable. Front Class III futures $15.21 (-0.65%, Oct 22); cheese futures $1.64 (-1.85%, 06:23 ET). Trading Economics Week's direction: cheese and butter both lower.
- Feed (06:23 ET, vs prior close): corn 458.35¢/bu (-0.47%), soybeans 1,252.95¢ (flat), wheat 624.33¢ (-0.07%); soymeal unavailable. Trading Economics
- Fuel: U.S. retail diesel $6.276/gal, week of Oct 19 (+9.7¢ w/w). EIA
- Freight: DAT spot, week of Oct 10–16: reefer $3.66/mi (-2¢), van $3.09 (-3¢). AJOT/DAT
- Rates: SOFR 3.88%; 2-year down 16 bp.
Our read: Butter near $1.35 keeps the butterfat side of Class IV weak, with strong NDM doing the lifting. Class III futures at $15.21 sit below September's $16.04 as blocks slide, so cheese-heavy milk checks look softer. Corn near two-month lows helps feed margins, but $6+ diesel offsets some of it; easing reefer rates help a little.