Stocks gain on AI earnings; Asia slides ~3% and US futures fall on Tesla, oil
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · as of Oct 22, 6:27 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
US stocks rose Wednesday as AI-linked earnings lifted the Nasdaq 1.05%, but Asia fell sharply overnight and US index futures are lower after Tesla's post-close drop and a Saudi oil-field attack that pushed crude back up. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year at 5.13%.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- US stocks closed higher Wednesday, Oct 21: S&P 500 +0.58%, Nasdaq +1.05%, Dow +0.69%, Russell 2000 +0.27%; health care led (XLV +1.87%). Tapeboard
- SpaceX and Super Micro results lifted AI names; after the bell Tesla fell 3%+ despite a beat, while Meta rose 2%+ on Q3 revenue and guidance. Trading Economics
- WTI crude fell 3.70% to $98.02 even though EIA data showed crude stocks down 3.06M barrels (consensus −0.8M); distillate stocks rose 1.68M vs a forecast draw of 1.2M. Tapeboard / Trading Economics calendar
- Asia sold off Thursday: KOSPI −3.52%, Hang Seng −3.03%, Nikkei −2.65%, on AI-return doubts and a drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field that pushed Brent above $110. Trading Economics
- Treasury yields edged up: 2-year 4.81% (+2 bp), 10-year 5.13% (+1 bp); the 20-year auction cleared at 5.469%. U.S. Treasury
Market snapshot
Why it mattered
Reported: Wednesday's gains came from earnings optimism around AI demand (Trading Economics). Overnight, Asian and European equities fell on renewed AI-valuation worries and Gulf tensions, and WTI traded back near $99.5 (+2.4%) early Thursday. French 10-year yields topped 5% ahead of Moody's review on Oct 23 (Trading Economics). Copper hit a five-week low (Trading Economics).
Our read (commentary, not investment advice): Selling megacaps even on beats signals stretched expectations. Pricier oil plus 10-year yields above 5% squeezes consumers and borrowers; next week's Fed meeting and PCE are the checkpoints.
Today's calendar
- 08:30 ET — Initial jobless claims (prior 199K, consensus 200K); continuing claims (prior 1,710K, consensus 1,720K)
- 10:30 ET — EIA natural gas storage (prior +67 Bcf, consensus +80 Bcf)
- 11:00 ET — Kansas City Fed manufacturing (prior 20)
- 13:00 ET — 5-year TIPS auction
- Earnings (timing unconfirmed): Procter & Gamble, Lockheed Martin, Western Digital, Honeywell, Union Pacific, Comcast, Blackstone, Valero, Newmont
- Week ahead: Fed decision Wed, Oct 28, 14:00 ET; Q3 GDP and September PCE Thu, Oct 29, 08:30 ET
Business lens
Dairy (USDA weekly NDPSR, week ending Oct 17, vs prior week): 40-lb block cheddar $1.3856/lb (−4.53¢); barrels unavailable; butter $1.3547/lb (−1.12¢); nonfat dry milk $1.9959/lb (+2.98¢); dry whey $0.7260/lb (+0.64¢) (USDA AMS). FMMO September (all-market average): Class III $16.04/cwt, Class IV $18.94/cwt. CME spot, Oct 21: blocks $1.7025 (−9.75¢), barrels $1.72 (unchanged), butter $1.33 (−3¢) (IndexBox/USDA DMN, butter). Cheese and butter both trended lower week over week. CME Class III/IV futures: unavailable.
Feed: Overnight soybeans 1,248¢/bu (+0.23%) and wheat 630¢/bu (+0.33%), Trading Economics CFD at ~06:25 ET. Corn and soybean meal: unavailable.
Fuel: US on-highway diesel $6.276/gal for the week of Oct 19, up 9.7¢ from Oct 12 (EIA via weeklydiesel.com).
Freight: unavailable. Rates: SOFR 3.88%; with the 2-year at 4.81%, term financing stays expensive.
Our read: Soft butter caps Class IV, while firmer NDM gives it some support. Falling cheese is the bigger risk for Class III and component-based milk checks. Diesel above $6 and rebounding crude keep route costs high; watch the milk-revenue-minus-feed-and-fuel margin closely.