Tech sell-off cuts Nasdaq 2.2%; US futures rebound as big earnings week opens
Monday, October 19, 2026 · as of Oct 19, 6:29 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
An AI-financing scare sent the Nasdaq down 2.15% on Friday while energy shares rallied with WTI near $99. US futures are up 0.4%–0.7% this morning even as Europe falls on unrest in France, and China's 4.5% Q3 growth beat estimates. For dairy, November Class IV futures sit about $3.66 above Class III, with butter still near $1.36/lb.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- Tech led Friday's slide: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15% and the Technology sector ETF (XLK) lost 3.02%, on AI-financing worries. Tapeboard
- Energy went the other way: WTI settled at $99.04 (+1.09%) and the Energy ETF (XLE) gained 2.52%. Tapeboard
- September industrial production rose 0.7% m/m vs a 0.4% consensus; capacity utilization was 76.9% vs 76.5% expected. TD actuals, TD consensus
- Fed Chair Warsh did not signal this month's decision; the Fed is now in its blackout before the Oct 27–28 meeting, with about 84% odds of a hold priced. Trading Economics
- China's Q3 GDP grew 4.5% y/y vs 4.4% expected, lifting Shanghai and copper overnight. Trading Economics
Market snapshot
Why it mattered
Reported: Friday was a rotation day: tech fell while energy, utilities and staples rose; the VIX jumped 21% to 19.99 (Tapeboard). Europe is lower this morning on protests in France and other countries (TE), while US futures are rebounding ahead of a heavy earnings week (TE).
Our read (commentary, not investment advice): Strong factory output and oil near $100 make a quick Fed cut harder to argue for, so the market is leaning on earnings — Netflix, Tesla and Meta this week — to settle the AI-spending debate.
Today's calendar
- 10:00 ET — NAHB housing index (Oct): consensus 31, prior 32 (TD).
- Earnings before the open: GE, Coca-Cola, PACCAR, Cleveland-Cliffs; after the close: Steel Dynamics, W.R. Berkley, EQT, Mattel (fffinstill).
- Later this week: housing starts (Tue 8:30), Netflix (Tue after close), Tesla/Meta/IBM (Wed after close), flash PMIs (Fri 9:45).
Business lens
- Dairy, USDA weekly (week ending Oct 10): 40-lb blocks $1.4309/lb (vs $1.4579), butter $1.3600 (vs $1.3696), NDM $1.9692 (vs $1.9365), dry whey $0.7198 (vs $0.6814); barrels unavailable (USDA AMS).
- FMMO September all-market average: Class III $16.04, Class IV $18.94/cwt (USDA AMS).
- CME, Oct 16: Nov Class III $17.34 (+9¢), Nov Class IV $21.00 (+50¢); spot cheese $1.65125 (+4¢), butter $1.3650 (+2¢), NDM $2.1625 (+1.25¢), whey $0.8950 (+0.5¢, record high). Weekly direction for cheese and butter: unavailable (TFM).
- Feed, Oct 16 settles: Dec corn $4.74¼ (-3¾¢), Nov soybeans $12.60½ (-2½¢), Dec Chicago wheat $6.60½ (-9½¢); soymeal unavailable (TFM).
- Fuel: US on-highway diesel $6.179/gal for the week of Oct 12, down 2¢ vs the prior week (EIA).
- Freight: unavailable. Rates: 10Y at 5.09%, SOFR 3.89% (above).
Our read (commentary): Butter near $1.36 keeps the butterfat value low, but strong powder and whey are carrying both classes. November Class IV is pricing about $3.66 over Class III, so the milk-check mix matters. Corn under $4.75 helps the feed-cost margin; $6 diesel and floating-rate debt remain the main cost pressures.