Stocks flat as energy rallies; oil near $95 ahead of September CPI
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · as of Oct 14, 6:27 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
US indexes ended Oct 13 fractionally lower as energy jumped and bank and chip stocks fell, with WTI up 1.3% to $94.99. Treasury yields eased after the holiday, and futures are little changed ahead of today's 8:30 ET CPI, which markets see as key to December Fed hike odds. For dairy, cheese and butter prices fell in the latest USDA week while nonfat powder kept Class IV well above Class III.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- US indexes closed Tuesday, Oct 13 fractionally lower; energy (XLE +3.26%) led and tech (XLK −1.26%) lagged. Tapeboard
- Bank results got a cool reception (Citigroup −5.3%, Wells Fargo −2.6%) and chip-equipment names slid (Applied Materials −7.2%). Trading Economics
- WTI rose 1.33% to $94.99 on renewed attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Tapeboard
- NFIB optimism fell to 97.9 (forecast 98, prior 98.7); existing-home sales rose 1.5% to 3.99M (forecast 3.95M). Trading Economics
- After the Columbus Day bond holiday, the 10-year yield eased 3 bp to 5.21% and the 2-year 1 bp to 4.79%. U.S. Treasury
Market snapshot
Changes are vs the prior close (Treasury: vs Oct 9). Europe, FX and copper are live quotes.
Why it mattered
Reported: China's September PPI jumped to 5.0% y/y; CPI was 0.9%, below 1.0% expected (Trading Economics). ASML beat estimates and said it can't fully meet chip-tool demand in 2027–28 (Trading Economics). Markets price ~88% odds of a December Fed hike after NY Fed's Williams said one more may be warranted (Trading Economics).
Our read (commentary, not investment advice): With oil near $95, today's CPI decides whether hike odds firm further. Flat indexes hide a sharp rotation from tech into energy.
Today's calendar
- 7:00 ET: MBA mortgage applications
- Before open: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Progressive earnings
- 8:30 ET: September CPI (consensus ~3.7% y/y, core ~2.4%; prior 3.4%/2.4%) (Admirals)
- TBD: Fed's Barkin and Bowman; ECB's Lagarde
- Thu 8:30 ET: PPI, retail sales, jobless claims
Business lens
- Dairy (USDA, week ending Oct 3 vs prior week): blocks $1.4579/lb (from $1.4955), butter $1.3694 (from $1.3871), NDM $1.9369 (from $1.8692), whey $0.6814 (from $0.6757); barrels unavailable. Cheese and butter both fell on the week. September FMMO averages: Class III $16.04/cwt, Class IV $18.94 (USDA AMS). CME spot dairy and Class III/IV futures: unavailable.
- Feed: corn below $4.80/bu near a seven-week low after USDA raised yields; soybeans ~$12.80; wheat below $6.70 (live quotes) (Trading Economics). Soymeal unavailable.
- Fuel: diesel $6.199/gal, week of Oct 5, down 18.3¢ (EIA).
- Freight: unavailable.
Our read (commentary): Strong powder is propping up Class IV while sliding cheese drags Class III, a ~$2.90 gap. Cheaper corn helps feed margins, but $95 oil keeps diesel high, and a December hike would raise variable-rate borrowing costs.