Tech slide on OpenAI revenue report drags Nasdaq 1.25%; oil jumps, futures rebound
Friday, October 9, 2026 · as of Oct 9, 6:31 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
A Financial Times report that OpenAI's revenue trails widely cited figures hit chip stocks Thursday, sending the Nasdaq down 1.25% and the S&P 500 down 0.47% while energy and staples lifted the Dow slightly. Overnight, futures and European stocks bounced as oil and yields eased; for dairy, USDA weekly cheese and butter prices fell again while nonfat dry milk firmed.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- Tech led the decline after a Financial Times report put OpenAI's annualized revenue near $50B, below the ~$68B widely cited; chipmakers fell (Nvidia −2.9%, Micron −4.8%, Intel −5.3%) and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.25%. TE: US stocks
- Money rotated defensively: energy (XLE) +2.34% and staples (XLP) +1.98% while tech (XLK) fell 2.09%, letting the Dow eke out a 0.10% gain. Tapeboard
- Oil and gold rallied: Nov WTI settled up $3.21 at $91.49 and Dec gold up $14.80 at $4,155.50. Brownfield
- Initial jobless claims came in at 197K vs 199K prior (consensus unavailable); the 30-year bond auction cleared at 5.618%. TE calendar
- Treasuries rallied: the official 10-year yield fell 6 bp to 5.22% and the 2-year 2 bp to 4.75%. U.S. Treasury
Market snapshot
Why it mattered
Reported: The selloff was concentrated in AI-linked chips; US futures rebounded overnight after reports that OpenAI expects annualized revenue of $70B or more by year-end (TE). European stocks bounced from multi-month lows as oil and bond yields eased (TE).
Our read (commentary, not investment advice): The tape is trading two forces at once — AI-revenue credibility and an oil/yield squeeze. Long yields fell despite higher crude; if oil keeps cooling, rate-sensitive pressure eases.
Today's calendar (ET)
- Earnings: Delta Air Lines, BlackRock (times TBD) (TE)
- 10:00 — UMich sentiment, prelim Oct (prior 48.1; 1-yr inflation expectations prior 4.6%)
- 12:00 — USDA WASDE & Crop Production (trade avg: corn 177.6 bpa vs 178.5 in Sept; soybeans 52.9 vs 52.8) (DTN)
- 13:00 — Baker Hughes rig count; 16:00 — Fed's Collins speaks (TE calendar)
Business lens
- Dairy (USDA weekly, week ending Oct 3, vs prior week): 40-lb block cheddar $1.4579/lb (−3.8¢); barrels unavailable; butter $1.3694 (−1.8¢); nonfat dry milk $1.9369 (+6.8¢); dry whey $0.6814 (+0.6¢). Cheese and butter both fell for the week. USDA AMS
- FMMO September all-market average: Class III $16.04/cwt (Aug $16.64); Class IV $18.94 (Aug $17.36). USDA AMS
- CME: Nov Class III futures $16.14, +30¢ (Oct 8) (Brownfield); CME spot cheese/butter/NDM/whey unavailable.
- Feed (Oct 8 settles): Dec corn $5.00¼ (−1¾¢); Nov soybeans $12.87½ (−10¢); Dec soymeal $357.60 (−$8.20); Dec Chicago wheat $6.83¼ (−3¼¢). Brownfield
- Fuel: US on-highway diesel $6.199/gal, week of Oct 5, down 18.3¢ w/w. EIA
- Freight: unavailable. Rates: SOFR 3.88%; 10-yr 5.22% (above).
Our read: Class IV is running ~$2.90 over Class III on strong powder, even as weak butter limits the butterfat side. Sub-$1.50 cheese keeps Class III pinned near $16, so a manufacturing-heavy milk check stays thin. Softer soymeal helps rations, but today's WASDE could move corn. Diesel is easing but above $6, and 5%+ long yields keep equipment borrowing costly.