Stocks close at records; trade gap widens to $105.6B; oil back near $90
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · as of Oct 7, 6:29 AM ET · covers the prior trading session
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records Tuesday on a chip rally, even as the August trade deficit came in wider than expected. Overnight, Asia and Europe fell as oil rebounded on Hormuz tanker attacks and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.33% ahead of today's Fed minutes. For dairy, feed futures jumped while Class III milk barely moved.
Key numbers
What mattered yesterday
- The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a record 7,807.09 on Tuesday as chipmakers led, with Broadcom up 3.7% and Marvell up 5.8%. Trading Economics
- The US trade deficit widened to $105.6B in August, wider than the $102.0B forecast and July's revised $92.8B. Trading Economics
- Oil climbed back toward $90 (WTI) overnight, and Brent moved back above $100, on renewed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Trading Economics
- Asia slipped Wednesday: KOSPI fell 1.98% ahead of Samsung's preliminary Q3 results Thursday, and mainland China stayed closed for National Day. Trading Economics
- Feed rallied: Nov soybeans gained 22¼¢ and Dec corn 10¾¢, while Nov Class III milk added 6¢ to $15.69. Brownfield
Market snapshot
Why it mattered
Reported: Stocks closed at records as the climb in Treasury yields paused, but the 10-year is still near 24-year highs at about 5.3% (TE). Markets price close to an 80% chance the Fed holds this month (TE). A record import bill pushed the August trade gap well past forecasts (TE).
Our read: Commentary, not investment advice. Equities are rising alongside 5%+ long yields and $90 oil, a mix that leaves little room for a hawkish surprise in today's Fed minutes.
Today's calendar
- 2:00pm ET — FOMC minutes (Sept meeting)
- 3:00pm ET — Consumer credit (Aug); forecast $14.0B, consensus $18.06B
- Thu Oct 8, 8:30am ET — Initial jobless claims; consensus 197K
- Thu Oct 8 — Earnings: PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines (times TBD); Samsung preliminary Q3 (Korea)
- Fri Oct 9, 10:00am ET — UMich sentiment (prelim Oct); consensus 48.1
Business lens
Dairy, official (USDA NDPSR, week ending Sep 26, vs prior week): 40-lb blocks $1.4958/lb (from $1.5435); butter $1.3871 (from $1.4412); nonfat dry milk $1.8727 (from $1.7966); dry whey $0.6752 (from $0.6727); barrels unavailable. FMMO September all-market average: Class III $16.04/cwt, Class IV $18.94/cwt (USDA AMS).
CME spot, Oct 6: blocks $1.3350 (+1¢), barrels $1.4525 (unch.), butter $1.31 (−½¢), NDM $2.2475 (+2¾¢), whey $0.8350 (unch.) (Brownfield). Nov Class III futures $15.69 (+6¢); Class IV futures unavailable. Week so far: cheese blocks firmer Monday and Tuesday; butter direction unavailable.
Feed (Oct 6 settle): Dec corn $5.08 (+10¾¢), Nov soybeans $13.03 (+22¼¢), Dec soymeal $354.80 (+$7.70), Dec Chicago wheat $7.04¼ (+12¢) (Brownfield).
Fuel: US on-highway diesel $6.199/gal, week of Oct 5, down 18.3¢ from $6.382 the week before (EIA; prior week via weeklydiesel.com). Freight: trucking spot rates unavailable. Rates: SOFR 3.89%, 10Y 5.33%.
Our read: Commentary. Butter near $1.31 weighs on Class IV butterfat value, but NDM at $2.25 is holding Class IV above Class III. With Class III futures in the mid-$15s and corn back above $5 with meal rising, feed-versus-milk margins are tightening. Diesel is easing but still above $6, and 5%+ yields keep borrowing costs high.